Monday, October 13, 2008

Monday before Election 2008; The statistics

The final polls going into election day, as reported in the Globe and Mail:

Strategic Counsel, in a national poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, had Stephen Harper's Conservatives at 33 per cent (down three points from their 2006 popular vote) and the Liberals at 28 per cent (down two points).

The New Democrats were at 18 per cent, the same as their vote in 2006, and the Greens were at 11 per cent, up six points. The Bloc Québécois were at 10 (42 per cent in Quebec, unchanged from 2006).

The Strategic Counsel poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

A Harris/Decima poll done for The Canadian Press had the Conservatives at 35 per cent followed by the Liberals at 26 per cent and the New Democrats at 18. An Ekos Research poll put the Conservatives at 34, the Liberals at 27 and the NDP at 18.

Nanos Research(PDF) reports the Conservatives at 33 per cent followed by the Liberals at 27 per cent and the New Democrats at 22. The Greens are at 9 per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 10 per cent.

This seems to confirm my longstanding prediction that the Tories can't grow their base above 34%. The issue tomorrow will be turnout. People aren't that enthusiastic about this election. Will this help them, their supporters being slightly less apathetic than others, or will the ABC vote show up to make sure the Conservatives don't gain seats?

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"If I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country."
-E.M. Forster