37.7%

Well, my prediction was low. Still, if voter turn out wasn't so low I suspect the overall number would have been about 34%. This view was shared by most pollsters, at the end.

The Conservatives have 46% of the seats with only 37.7 percent of the vote. The Bloq Quebecois have 16 % of the seats with only 10 percent of the vote.

Check out Fair Vote Canada; I'm tired, like about 6 million other Canadian citizens, of being an orphan voter.

Strategic Voting: Ontario

Here are some prime ridings to vote strategically in, in Ontario. This means you vote for the progressive party most likely to win in each riding. I obtained the data from Vote For the Environment and Democratic Space(pdf). In fact, most Tories are vulnerable if the progressive parties vote strategically. In the following ridings the respective Liberal, NDP or Green candidates have the best chance of defeating the Tory incumbent.

To avoid splitting the vote and letting a Conservative win vote Liberal in;
Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale; Barrie;Brampton West; Brant; Burlington; Essex; Haldimand-Norfolk; Halton; Kitchener-Conestoga; Kenora; London West; Ottawa South; Ottawa Vanier; Mississauga-Erindale; Mississauga South; Mississauga-Streetsville; Parry Sound-Muskoka; Peterborough; Newmarket-Aurora; Niagara Falls;Northumberland-Quinte West; Oak Ridges-Markham; Oakville; Simcoe North; St. Catharines; Cambridge; Huron-Bruce; Sarnia-Lambton; Welland

Vote for the NDP in;
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing; Hamilton East-Stoney Creek; Nickel Belt;Parkdale-High Park; Ottawa- Orleans; Ottawa West- Nepean; Oshawa; Sault Ste.Marie; Thunder bay- Rainy River; Whitby-Oshawa

And vote Green in;
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound;

ABC(Anybody but the Conservatives).

Stephen Harper; Why wasn't he told about this economy thing?

Harper- trained economist- I guess he was home sick on the day they covered that recession stuff.

WITNESS: Oh no! A global crisis just ate Canada's election
by David Ljunggren

OTTAWA (Reuters) - It's not every day you get slapped down on live television by the leader of a major industrialized nation, but these are unusual times.

A month ago, at a news conference to mark the start of Canada's election campaign, I asked Prime Minister Stephen Harper why he was so sure he could keep the budget in surplus.

The ailing U.S. economy was headed for much bigger trouble, I said. And given that the United States swallows 75 percent of all Canadian exports, this was surely bad news for Ottawa.

Harper, an economist by trade, looked at me sternly.

"First of all I would just call on everybody to engage in analysis more sober than that," he said to snickers from the audience.

It was unlikely there would be a U.S. crash or recession so everyone should remain calm, he added.(more)

Monday before Election 2008; The statistics

The final polls going into election day, as reported in the Globe and Mail:

Strategic Counsel, in a national poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, had Stephen Harper's Conservatives at 33 per cent (down three points from their 2006 popular vote) and the Liberals at 28 per cent (down two points).

The New Democrats were at 18 per cent, the same as their vote in 2006, and the Greens were at 11 per cent, up six points. The Bloc Québécois were at 10 (42 per cent in Quebec, unchanged from 2006).

The Strategic Counsel poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

A Harris/Decima poll done for The Canadian Press had the Conservatives at 35 per cent followed by the Liberals at 26 per cent and the New Democrats at 18. An Ekos Research poll put the Conservatives at 34, the Liberals at 27 and the NDP at 18.

Nanos Research(PDF) reports the Conservatives at 33 per cent followed by the Liberals at 27 per cent and the New Democrats at 22. The Greens are at 9 per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 10 per cent.

This seems to confirm my longstanding prediction that the Tories can't grow their base above 34%. The issue tomorrow will be turnout. People aren't that enthusiastic about this election. Will this help them, their supporters being slightly less apathetic than others, or will the ABC vote show up to make sure the Conservatives don't gain seats?

Speaking of Muzzles; The conservatives and Le conseil

Le Conseil de Patronat is one of the biggest business organizations in Quebec. So they send out a questionaire about policy to the five major parties. Only the Conservatives don't respond.

I suppose if I was a Tory I would feel uncomfortable (but what a lame excuse that is) about answering a questionaire from say Equiterre (environmentalists), the FTQ (unionists) or ELAN(artistists) but Le Conseil? That represents the Conservatives' natural constituency. If Stephen Harper feels he either can or should ignore one of the most powerful groups in Quebec, then no one should be surprised if he loses seats there, next Tuesday.

Stephen Harper; Economist or Momma's boy

Mr. Harper says that he gets word about the stockmarket from his mother before he gets it from the finance department. Either he has produced his mother at the eleventh hour to prove he has one, or he is not the trained economist he says he is.

First cuddly sweaters, now a fiscal hug from mum? This pandering to poll results both shames Mr. Harper and reveals no small hint of desperation. It seems that when Canadians get to know him and his Conservatives- no matter how he twists, wiggles and re-brands himself- the more Canadians do not trust or like him.

34% on October 14th

For some time now, Between Adam's Ears has been predicting the Conservatives will achieve at most about 34% voter support on election day. It seems others now share this opinion; The Globe and mail reports

A Harris/Decima poll for The Canadian Press shows the Conservatives gliding downhill from a high of 41-per-cent support on Sept. 11 to 34 per cent on Oct. 4.

The fundamental limitations of Stephen Harper and his Conservatives in a country where two thirds of the population oppose them will limit his electoral success. It's important to remember the last election was largely fought to punish the Liberals for the Sponsorship Scandal. Given the party has purged those involved, and others have gone to jail, people may remember the fiscal restraint and economic growth under recent Liberal governments. They should also think about the lack of progress on the environment, and the response of the Conservatives in Ontario to the last recession- Mr. Flaherty was finance minister there. Not to mention the national debt and deficit doubled under the previous conservative government of Brian Mulroney.

John Baird out: Vote for the Environment

John Baird has been a disaster for the environment. He is also a belligerent, stonewalling brute in the government- a minister of spin and disarray.

If every progressive voter- NDP, GREEN and yes, Liberal votes strategically, that blathering apparatchik can be sent packing. Check out Vote For The Environment and look into vote swapping/ vote pairing.

Harper's copy-cat speech; Polls slide for Tories

I had confidence that the Conservatives, led by Stephen Harper, would shoot themselves in the foot. They are only really competent at spin. As soon as one of their candidates speaks, the media are hustled off by Harper's praetorian guard of Mounted Police, lest the public hear the inane and often venomous opinions of the useless Conservative candidates. Let us not forget that even the Cabinet and the PMO is hardly flawless. Just think of Maxim Bernier, Rhona Ambrose and the various backroom operatives that keep having to resign.

Really, I didn't think Harper himself would be to blame for sabotaging his own campaign. He must think Canadians are so stupid and of short memory that they wouldn't notice his past performance; That the taxpayers(even Conservative ones) would not notice he's bribing them with their own money by creating spending proposals that reflect polls and the news cycle- take the tax break for arts classes;That he would say or do anything to get elected; that behind this year's sweater is the same Mr.Mean there's always been.

Not noticing he was reading John Howard's speech word-for-word? That speaks to incompetence, both his and that of his staff.

The polls- Ekos, Nanos and Strategic Council- all show the conservatives are sliding because eventually some Tory opens his mouth. This is especially true in swing ridings in Quebec and British Columbia where Conservatives often won with a tiny margin. It's time to shut down amateur hour.

Updated!

Go to Harpocracy.ca to see which of his candidates he has muzzled most recently.

Strategic Voting:British Columbia

In British Columbia ridings many of the races are fairly competitive. Often the Conservatives have won because of a split among progressive voters. Choosing to support the most popular progressive candidate ie Liberal, NDP or Green would defeat the Tories in the ridings of Burnaby- Douglas, Burnaby- New Westminster, Cariboo- Prince George, Esquimalt- Juan de Fuca, Fleetwood- Port Kells, Kamloops- Thompson- Cariboo, Nanaimo- Alberny, New Westminster- Coaquitlam, Okanagan- Shuswap, Pitt Meadows- Maple ridge- Mission, Port Moody- Westwood- Port Coaquitlam, Saanich- Gulf Islands, South Surrey- White Rock- Cloverdale, Surrey North, Vancouver Island North, Vancouver Quadra,and West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast- Sea to Sky Country. Check your riding to see the best bet for defeating the Tories.

Especially important is to defeat Minister Gary Lunn in Saanich- Gulf islands, who strongly supports oil at the expense of the environment and who regards nuclear safety as an after thought.

Until we get proportional representation and one vote really does count, strategic voting and vote swapping initiatives have to be part of the environmentalist's political tool box.

Strategic voting: Alberta

Over at Vote For the Environment, they have some suggestions for avoiding vote splitting in the ridings of Edmonton Center and Edmonton-Strathcona. However, several other ridings in Alberta could swing away from the Conservatives if folks voted en masse for one opposition candidate.

Calgary Center, Calgary Centre-North, Edmonton East all could defeat the Tory incumbent if the opposition voters parked their vote with the strongest opposition candidate- in these cases Hee Sung Kim with the Liberals, John Chan with the NDP and Stephanie Laskoski of the Liberals, respectively.

Amateur hour on the 2008 election trail; Tories asleep at the wheel.

What do you call a Conservative with a blog? A Liberal party supporter.

It's no wonder most Conservative candidates aren't allowed to speak to anyone.

More In-and-Out; Tories bully their own into silence

The Tory brass referred to their own people in crude fashion, bullying their own people who questioned the In-and-Out campaign finance scandal.

When is anyone going to point out that this scheme attempts to defraud tax payers, as well as defying Election Laws?

The Green Shift explained

Ok, I'll cut your income tax, but you'll have to pay more at the pump.

What is so bloody complex about that? If you sell the Hummer and get a Toyota, you save money. If you reduce your gas consumption, you pollute less and save even more money.

Less income tax= more money in your pocket.
Higher gas tax = reduction in gas consumption= less pollution.

In the long run, this will encourage energy saving and investment in alternative energy sources.

Only journalists could have trouble explaining this.
(oddly enough, this policy is completely inline with fiscal conservative economic theory- but wont boost the bottom line for BIG OIL- Stephen Harper's closest friends)

Drinking the Koolaid; Tory economic promises unfulfilled

The mantra of fiscal conservatism calls for a free market with minimal taxes and minimal government spending. The Conservative party has always made this a cornerstone of their election promises. In practice, historically, they have always over spent government money, usually by borrowing, so as not to raise taxes during their mandates. This is spelled out in an article in the Ottawa Citizen, Evaluating Harper's economic performance, written by Randall Denley:

Harper refers to prudent spending, but that's hardly the case. Harper's budgets have forecast big increases in government spending, then exceeded those targets. Their first budget called for a substantial 5.4-per-cent spending increase. The actual figure was 7.5 per cent. The next budget forecast 5.6 per cent more spending and came in at 6.9 per cent. That's faster spending growth than under Liberal Paul Martin. So far this fiscal year, federal spending is growing at an 8.4-per-cent rate. Where's the discipline?

Harper has lowered the GST by two points and created various small, gimmicky tax breaks, but he hasn't made any significant progress on cutting personal income taxes. Harper did get the lowest tax rate down by half a percentage point, but that only reversed an increase he had made the year before.

Given the increase in spending, and mismanagement that has the government sliding into deficit, it seems that we're not better off with Harper.

Greenshift vs Notaleader; election websites

If you go to the Liberal's green shift site you can calculate whether or not you will gain or lose money( I wound up ahead by over a hundred bucks a month). If you go to the Conservatives' Not A leader site, you get a lesson in cyber bullying. The NDP has a lot of pictures of Jack Layton and 'blogging tools" so bloggers can customise their blogs to look like the main NDP site.

Le Bloq Quebecois est present. Ils ne bouge pas, je suppose.

The Green party has maintained a pleasant green theme at their main party website, but at this time still are refering to the by-elections that were canceled by the General Election.

Gutless; Are we better off with a coward?

Mr.Harper informed The Broadcast Consortium- the group of major broadcasters that sponsor the leadership debates during Canadian elections- that he wouldn't attend the debate if the leader of the Green party, Elizabeth May was allowed to attend. In fact, three of the four party leaders, Messrs. Layton and Duceppe also said they wouldn't attend if the Green party was represented. Stephane Dion was prepared to include the Green party leader.
Updated!
Jack Layton has the minimal courage to stand behind his words Wrong!

Mr. Layton said it was the television networks that were responsible for preventing her participation.

“The networks have made a decision now. They've decided to use the rules that were used the last time,” he told reporters.

- Harper and Duceppe are backpedaling and blaming the Consortium. Of course, the Consortium could have told the Prime Minster that if he was afraid to face Elizabeth May, he needn't turn up. Harper couldn't stay away- he would look an even bigger coward and bully than he does now.

I do agree with someone that texted a local radio show; The Election Act should be amended so that the minimum requirements for participation were clearly set out.

Updated!
Jack Layton gave in when his own party members argued for May's inclusion. As a result Harper backed down and agreed to attend the leadership debates, along with Dion, Harper, Duceppe and May.

Tory Majority; Not yet

My liberal/progressive friends have been bemoaning the Tory Juggernaut, and its anticipated majority. I have maintained that the Tories will lose popular vote, because the high poll numbers often reported are outliers- the typical three- week numbers have the liberals and Conservatives much closer in popularity.

I have also asserted that overwhelming Tory support in a few ridings fails to address the underwhelming support in many ridings. Apparently, the Ipsos-Reid polling firm agrees with this assessment.

Valuing family: Children as campaign assets

Macleans reports that in an interview with the CTV Stephen Harper refers to his children as "great campaign assets". For an economist to refer to his children that way says a lot about how he values family- as an asset, like a stock portfolio, or a second car.

This guy is a family-values conservative? All hat, no cattle...

34.3 percent and falling; Stephen Harper's greater fool theory

"You can fool some of the people, some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time" -Attributed to Abraham Lincoln.

Between Adam's Ears stands by its prediction that the Conservative Party will not garner more than 34.3% of the popular vote in the next election. Angus Reid Strategies reports that the Conservatives are polling 36% to the Liberals 28%.

However, the details of that poll reveal that Stephen Harper is distrusted by many. That the environment is seen as the top issue by Canadians, transcending short-term issues reveals the fundamental weakness of the Conservative party, both as politicians and leaders. As the Tory's ads say "Stephen Harper is a straight-up guy who knows what he thinks" but try and get him to tell you in detail what he thinks and his party publishes a vague press release. So although many people feel he has a vision for this country (and I'm certain he has), those people may also feel that vision has more in common with Dante's 'Inferno' than what most Canadians really want for their families, their country and the world around us.

It is important to remember that last Conservative government doubled both the national debt and deficit while in office. Despite talking the talk of fiscal conservatism, the current Conservative government has increased the national debt and flirted with a deficit during the last two fiscal quarters.

Although the efforts by our troops to secure Afghanistan are honourable and deserve our respect, the policy that keeps them there has more to do with 'making nice' with the current George Bush administration than anything to gain from the 'dirty little wars of empire' of which the original mission to Afghanistan has degenerated into.

I expect tomorrow, or shortly after, Stephen Harper is going to call an election, a year earlier than his own fixed election-date law calls for. He hopes that people will forget the election fraud investigations that hover over his party, the privatisation of food inspection that preceded the Listeriosis outbreak (claiming nine lives so far),and the Bernier scandals. After the Chuck Cadman tape scandal, his lame policy failure attacking gay marrige(bigotry at the least) and his turning a blind eye to turncoat MP's(such as Foreign Affairs Minister David Emerson who switched from the Liberals) after saying that such behavior should be banned reveals one thing;

Stephen Harper thinks at least 36% of Canadians are too stupid to notice when he's lying. And in Conservative party strategy, that is all the people they have to fool.