37.7%

Well, my prediction was low. Still, if voter turn out wasn't so low I suspect the overall number would have been about 34%. This view was shared by most pollsters, at the end.

The Conservatives have 46% of the seats with only 37.7 percent of the vote. The Bloq Quebecois have 16 % of the seats with only 10 percent of the vote.

Check out Fair Vote Canada; I'm tired, like about 6 million other Canadian citizens, of being an orphan voter.

Monday before Election 2008; The statistics

The final polls going into election day, as reported in the Globe and Mail:

Strategic Counsel, in a national poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, had Stephen Harper's Conservatives at 33 per cent (down three points from their 2006 popular vote) and the Liberals at 28 per cent (down two points).

The New Democrats were at 18 per cent, the same as their vote in 2006, and the Greens were at 11 per cent, up six points. The Bloc Québécois were at 10 (42 per cent in Quebec, unchanged from 2006).

The Strategic Counsel poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

A Harris/Decima poll done for The Canadian Press had the Conservatives at 35 per cent followed by the Liberals at 26 per cent and the New Democrats at 18. An Ekos Research poll put the Conservatives at 34, the Liberals at 27 and the NDP at 18.

Nanos Research(PDF) reports the Conservatives at 33 per cent followed by the Liberals at 27 per cent and the New Democrats at 22. The Greens are at 9 per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 10 per cent.

This seems to confirm my longstanding prediction that the Tories can't grow their base above 34%. The issue tomorrow will be turnout. People aren't that enthusiastic about this election. Will this help them, their supporters being slightly less apathetic than others, or will the ABC vote show up to make sure the Conservatives don't gain seats?

34% on October 14th

For some time now, Between Adam's Ears has been predicting the Conservatives will achieve at most about 34% voter support on election day. It seems others now share this opinion; The Globe and mail reports

A Harris/Decima poll for The Canadian Press shows the Conservatives gliding downhill from a high of 41-per-cent support on Sept. 11 to 34 per cent on Oct. 4.

The fundamental limitations of Stephen Harper and his Conservatives in a country where two thirds of the population oppose them will limit his electoral success. It's important to remember the last election was largely fought to punish the Liberals for the Sponsorship Scandal. Given the party has purged those involved, and others have gone to jail, people may remember the fiscal restraint and economic growth under recent Liberal governments. They should also think about the lack of progress on the environment, and the response of the Conservatives in Ontario to the last recession- Mr. Flaherty was finance minister there. Not to mention the national debt and deficit doubled under the previous conservative government of Brian Mulroney.

34.3 percent and falling; Stephen Harper's greater fool theory

"You can fool some of the people, some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time" -Attributed to Abraham Lincoln.

Between Adam's Ears stands by its prediction that the Conservative Party will not garner more than 34.3% of the popular vote in the next election. Angus Reid Strategies reports that the Conservatives are polling 36% to the Liberals 28%.

However, the details of that poll reveal that Stephen Harper is distrusted by many. That the environment is seen as the top issue by Canadians, transcending short-term issues reveals the fundamental weakness of the Conservative party, both as politicians and leaders. As the Tory's ads say "Stephen Harper is a straight-up guy who knows what he thinks" but try and get him to tell you in detail what he thinks and his party publishes a vague press release. So although many people feel he has a vision for this country (and I'm certain he has), those people may also feel that vision has more in common with Dante's 'Inferno' than what most Canadians really want for their families, their country and the world around us.

It is important to remember that last Conservative government doubled both the national debt and deficit while in office. Despite talking the talk of fiscal conservatism, the current Conservative government has increased the national debt and flirted with a deficit during the last two fiscal quarters.

Although the efforts by our troops to secure Afghanistan are honourable and deserve our respect, the policy that keeps them there has more to do with 'making nice' with the current George Bush administration than anything to gain from the 'dirty little wars of empire' of which the original mission to Afghanistan has degenerated into.

I expect tomorrow, or shortly after, Stephen Harper is going to call an election, a year earlier than his own fixed election-date law calls for. He hopes that people will forget the election fraud investigations that hover over his party, the privatisation of food inspection that preceded the Listeriosis outbreak (claiming nine lives so far),and the Bernier scandals. After the Chuck Cadman tape scandal, his lame policy failure attacking gay marrige(bigotry at the least) and his turning a blind eye to turncoat MP's(such as Foreign Affairs Minister David Emerson who switched from the Liberals) after saying that such behavior should be banned reveals one thing;

Stephen Harper thinks at least 36% of Canadians are too stupid to notice when he's lying. And in Conservative party strategy, that is all the people they have to fool.

Conservative support sinking

Despite reportage of anomalous spikes in polls as accurate representations of the popularity of Canada's Federal parties, the actual popularity of the various parties has been fairly stable. This week for example Harris/Decima reported the harper conservatives at 37% popularity- however Harris/Decima's own research indicates this was an anomaly in a three week period where the Conservatives consistently polled 34%.

I suppose the anomalous stuff makes for more interesting press releases.

On the other hand, the Conservatives have been unable to expand beyond their base of 29% diehards and 5% who still want to punish the liberals. And the figures seem to indicate that 5% is shrinking. Pooling the results of the major polling firms over time shows this.

A vote of confidence over the Budget, or Aghanistan is now very likely, triggering a general election. My prediction as to its outcome still stands, except that the Conservatives will probably poll even lower than I've predicted.
At this time Between Adam's Ears is suggesting the next General Election's results will be:

Liberals36%
Conservatives33%
Bloc Québecois 9%
Green 7%
NDP 16%

The press releases and the detailed data is available online at:
Angus Reid
Environics
Harris/Decima
Ipsos
Strategic Council