Monday, November 05, 2007

Canada's New Government: Not more than 34.3%

For the last few weeks, not to mention back almost 18 months, I've had to endure endless sermons from Conservative supporters and even those that aren't. These folks seem to feel Stephen Harper, for his is the will and mind of his caucus, is a political genius who will sweep the next election.

Despite the cheering and moaning, like the fox leaping for the grapes, he never quite gets them. I predict that the Conservative party will not garner more than 34.3% of the popular vote in the next federal general election. And if Stephan Dion starts trusting his own council, and not those of the smarmy backroom operators, the Conservatives' result may be a lot smaller than 34.3%.

Every time Harper's party commissions a poll, and that poll suggests the Conservatives have reached that magic 40% popularity/ majority region, the Lemming Left and the Righteous Right announce it's all over save the CBC predicting a Conservative win on election night.

However, once the headlines clear, and polls come out that weren't paid for by Harper's Harpies, the conservatives are once again revealed to be floundering about in the low 30's. After acting like belligerent teenagers on the Floor of the House and in Committee, after trying to buy votes with our taxes, they have eliminated all but the conservative diehards, and those not yet ready to forgive the Liberals. That last group may well decide to split between the Grits, Greens and 'Dippers. At 10%, the Greens have a strong possibility of gaining seats.

For all the spin, the biggest change is the gradual decline of the Bloc and the gradual rise of the Greens. And you can take that to a non-income trust bank!

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"If I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country."
-E.M. Forster