Coalition Politics: End of the Presidential PM?

The opposition parties in the federal house of commons, which represent 163 seats and 2 out of every three voters in Canada, have formed a coalition to oust the Tories. The threat to their funding got them together, but they were correct that the Conservative's lack of a stimulus package was essentially incompetent. Their approach to the current economic crisis was the same as that of US Pres. Herbert Hoover during the Great Depression- an approach that is now credited with deepening and extending the great depression. The particular brand of conservatism that advocates that approach, one of meddling only in sexual but not economic behavior is an anathema to the opposition hence they have decided to use their parliamentary majority to bring down the government with a non-confidence vote.

The upshot of this is a return to the Westminster model, where the Prime Minister serves at the pleasure of parliament, and where each member of parliament has a say in government. Instead of voting in a dictator, this returns representation to government in Canada. The individual member serves at the pleasure of the electorate he or she represents. It also suggests that the time may be ripe for the introduction of a system of representation by population.

As an aside, it says something about Stephane Dion that he could get Gilles Duceppe to agree to support a Liberal-led government.

Greenshift vs Notaleader; election websites

If you go to the Liberal's green shift site you can calculate whether or not you will gain or lose money( I wound up ahead by over a hundred bucks a month). If you go to the Conservatives' Not A leader site, you get a lesson in cyber bullying. The NDP has a lot of pictures of Jack Layton and 'blogging tools" so bloggers can customise their blogs to look like the main NDP site.

Le Bloq Quebecois est present. Ils ne bouge pas, je suppose.

The Green party has maintained a pleasant green theme at their main party website, but at this time still are refering to the by-elections that were canceled by the General Election.

Gutless; Are we better off with a coward?

Mr.Harper informed The Broadcast Consortium- the group of major broadcasters that sponsor the leadership debates during Canadian elections- that he wouldn't attend the debate if the leader of the Green party, Elizabeth May was allowed to attend. In fact, three of the four party leaders, Messrs. Layton and Duceppe also said they wouldn't attend if the Green party was represented. Stephane Dion was prepared to include the Green party leader.
Updated!
Jack Layton has the minimal courage to stand behind his words Wrong!

Mr. Layton said it was the television networks that were responsible for preventing her participation.

“The networks have made a decision now. They've decided to use the rules that were used the last time,” he told reporters.

- Harper and Duceppe are backpedaling and blaming the Consortium. Of course, the Consortium could have told the Prime Minster that if he was afraid to face Elizabeth May, he needn't turn up. Harper couldn't stay away- he would look an even bigger coward and bully than he does now.

I do agree with someone that texted a local radio show; The Election Act should be amended so that the minimum requirements for participation were clearly set out.

Updated!
Jack Layton gave in when his own party members argued for May's inclusion. As a result Harper backed down and agreed to attend the leadership debates, along with Dion, Harper, Duceppe and May.

Carbon Tax: "Tax what we don't want...

...and don't tax what we do want."
-David MacGuinty

David Suzuki's support of the Liberal plan for a revenue-neutral carbon tax provides a useful endorsement when most pundits are tut-tutting Stephan Dion. This two-bit condescension from the press is damaging to efforts to create long-term policies that will benefit Canadians . The reception by the pundits up to now reflects a cheap analysis of the attitudes of the Canadian electorate. Those that oppose the Carbon tax won't vote for anyone but the Tories, anyway. And that is a rather small rump centered in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Nobody wants to pay more taxes; But most people are not foolish enough to buy into the fairy-tale that we'll solve all are problems Next Year. The environment needs action now, but the laissez-faire attitude of Canada's New Government regarding pollution( but not sex, they want to legislate that) reveals a policy of eat, drink and make money and "to hell with you Jack, I'm alright" that provides no long term answers.

With current popularity putting the Tories slightly ahead of the Liberals(33% to 31% a figure that follows the averages for almost 18 months now), a Federal election over the environment, rather than the Conservatives' general incompetence, cynicism and immaturity would play to the strengths of the opposition parties. Of course, the Conservatives' ability as sophomoric debaters shouldn't be discounted if the election is portrayed as a horse race, rather than a serious confrontation of policy and direction for Canada.

The Old 'In and Out': How the end justifies the means

Stephan Dion observed accurately if somewhat tritely that
"you don't cheat for nothing.You cheat to have an effect".

Obviously, the flouting of the Election law could be justified if one believes that the greater good is served by the Conservative party forming the government. How charmingly marxist.

The cynic in me can't but believe that some where the calculation was made that the Canadian public wouldn't take an interest in what could be perceived as an accounting error. A general policy of stonewalling the media and the legal tactic of filing civil suits when facing opposition has obsfucated various issues, including the afghan detainee file, the medical isotopes file and the Cadman affair, among others.

The belief in the Tory party, that the benefits of a Conservative government out ways any costs of achieving electoral victory, reveals a fundamental deficit of integrity; That is to say the Conservative party does not think, act and speak in concert, with clarity and frankness.

Polls; lies, damn lies and statistics

the major polling companies publish their poll results and those results are duly reported in the media.

The Ipsos Reid poll, published in the CanWest group of newspapers, put support for the Conservatives at 35 percent, unchanged from a poll in March. But support for the Liberals fell to 30 percent, from 32 percent.- from Reuters

However a summary of headlines based on this poll includes:

Tories and Liberals remain deadlocked, new poll suggests The Canadian Press

Tories hold on to poll leadNational Post, Canada

Then a poll released about a week ago gives

Ten-Point Lead for Conservatives in Canada Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, April 02, 2008
Outlying statistics are loudly reported, but the boring fact that the published 3 week averages produced but generally under reported show little variation from Tories with 34%, Grits with 30% Dippers with 16%. The Greens are slowly growing and the Bloq slowly waning. The big issue is that with the current stable popularity of the various parties, the Liberals will gain seats, and the Bloq and NDP will lose seats if an election were called. The Conservatives will remain a minority government.

I'm not sure why the Liberals don't force a confidence motion, since they'll gain seats in an election, and probably the NDP and Bloq will prop up the government lest they lose seats in any current election. Currently, an election would help then Liberals and the greens, because both would gain some seats. The Conservatives would look like half-milers because they'll still be in minority.

Expect the election when the snow melts. A gain in seats would strenghten Dion's position(I think his nuanced positions will gain currency against that of the bully-boy, backroom Tories). I think the Greens will be the big winners next time around because the parlour pink socialists of the NDP and the psuedo-left Bloq will melt with the late spring. Knowing that the next government will also be a minority should help relieve the pressure for strategic voting.

Certainly, ending the government by fiat of Stephen Harper's Tories would allow us to go forward in a more kindly and effective way as a nation.

Conservative support sinking

Despite reportage of anomalous spikes in polls as accurate representations of the popularity of Canada's Federal parties, the actual popularity of the various parties has been fairly stable. This week for example Harris/Decima reported the harper conservatives at 37% popularity- however Harris/Decima's own research indicates this was an anomaly in a three week period where the Conservatives consistently polled 34%.

I suppose the anomalous stuff makes for more interesting press releases.

On the other hand, the Conservatives have been unable to expand beyond their base of 29% diehards and 5% who still want to punish the liberals. And the figures seem to indicate that 5% is shrinking. Pooling the results of the major polling firms over time shows this.

A vote of confidence over the Budget, or Aghanistan is now very likely, triggering a general election. My prediction as to its outcome still stands, except that the Conservatives will probably poll even lower than I've predicted.
At this time Between Adam's Ears is suggesting the next General Election's results will be:

Liberals36%
Conservatives33%
Bloc Québecois 9%
Green 7%
NDP 16%

The press releases and the detailed data is available online at:
Angus Reid
Environics
Harris/Decima
Ipsos
Strategic Council

Canada's New Government: Not more than 34.3%

For the last few weeks, not to mention back almost 18 months, I've had to endure endless sermons from Conservative supporters and even those that aren't. These folks seem to feel Stephen Harper, for his is the will and mind of his caucus, is a political genius who will sweep the next election.

Despite the cheering and moaning, like the fox leaping for the grapes, he never quite gets them. I predict that the Conservative party will not garner more than 34.3% of the popular vote in the next federal general election. And if Stephan Dion starts trusting his own council, and not those of the smarmy backroom operators, the Conservatives' result may be a lot smaller than 34.3%.

Every time Harper's party commissions a poll, and that poll suggests the Conservatives have reached that magic 40% popularity/ majority region, the Lemming Left and the Righteous Right announce it's all over save the CBC predicting a Conservative win on election night.

However, once the headlines clear, and polls come out that weren't paid for by Harper's Harpies, the conservatives are once again revealed to be floundering about in the low 30's. After acting like belligerent teenagers on the Floor of the House and in Committee, after trying to buy votes with our taxes, they have eliminated all but the conservative diehards, and those not yet ready to forgive the Liberals. That last group may well decide to split between the Grits, Greens and 'Dippers. At 10%, the Greens have a strong possibility of gaining seats.

For all the spin, the biggest change is the gradual decline of the Bloc and the gradual rise of the Greens. And you can take that to a non-income trust bank!

The mouse that roared

Stephane Dion came from the hinterlands of the previous liberal cabinet to become the new leader of the opposition. The pundits from Quebec and the West mostly say that he a) can't speak English properly and b) everyone in Quebec hates him.

In fact, when Dion declared himself a Canadian and lead the charge towards the Clarity act, the liberals actually rose in popularity in Quebec. The problem is that the nattering classes in the rest of Canada listen too unquestioningly to the nattering classes and the political elites in Quebec. These groups are predominantly nationalist, if not outright sovereignist. As a result they slander any Quebecois who embraces confederation. However, we must remember that when given a vote, the majority of people in the province of Quebec have twice chosen to stay in Canada. Moreover, quebecers respect a passionate intellectual with a strong opinion, not necessarily a rockstar- and M.Dion fits that description.

As for the reports of his weakness in English, that's bigotry from the Right out west. Stephane Dion speaks with better english grammar than M.Chretien(which isn't hard)and with a broader fluency than Ralph Klein. His accent is strong but hardly difficult.

As for charisma, Pierre Trudeau was considered uncharismatic early on in his political career. Besides, his chief opponent is Stephen Harper, who hardly counts as charismatic.

I'm hardly one to endorse the liberal party, but the current criticisms against Stephane Dion border on sophmoric, if not simply adolescent. Two-bit criticisms do nothing for Canada nor our country's political discourse.

I'd like to know how M.Dion proposes to grow an economy while shrinking energy use- and how to do it in the face of the supporters of (excreable) tar-sands projects.

Why I like, respect and won't vote for Duceppe

The second leader's debate aired on national tv last night. The formula wasn't Jerry Springer, with screaming, shouting and public nudity, but it actually allowed the candidates to present their policies and their characters . Unfortunately, these characters are rather uninspiring.

Mr Harper doesn't want to say what he wants to do. He mostly makes quiet comments about values, and promises that are not available to any federal leader[gay marriage and healthcare are matters of provincial jurisdiction as M.Duceppe reminded him].

Mr.Martin is proof that Canadians like pleasant,efficient and bland politicians. Otherwise he'd be in exile fleeing corruption charges.

Jack Layton has a job to do, which is to hammer home the message "vote NDP", don't hold your nose and vote Liberal lest Harper gets elected. The result is he didn't have time to present his more nuanced opinions- he used catch phrases and code words to remind people he is a leftist/progressive. Unfortunately, his hard sell style probably annoys the parlour pink socialists in the academy. However he might reach the people who should vote for him. Besides he looks like the old PM's on Canadian currency.

Ultimately, Gilles Duceppe the man who can't be Prime minister, spoke his mind freely, presented his points with vigour and dignity. If only he were a federalist.