Thursday, January 24, 2008

Conservative support sinking

Despite reportage of anomalous spikes in polls as accurate representations of the popularity of Canada's Federal parties, the actual popularity of the various parties has been fairly stable. This week for example Harris/Decima reported the harper conservatives at 37% popularity- however Harris/Decima's own research indicates this was an anomaly in a three week period where the Conservatives consistently polled 34%.

I suppose the anomalous stuff makes for more interesting press releases.

On the other hand, the Conservatives have been unable to expand beyond their base of 29% diehards and 5% who still want to punish the liberals. And the figures seem to indicate that 5% is shrinking. Pooling the results of the major polling firms over time shows this.

A vote of confidence over the Budget, or Aghanistan is now very likely, triggering a general election. My prediction as to its outcome still stands, except that the Conservatives will probably poll even lower than I've predicted.
At this time Between Adam's Ears is suggesting the next General Election's results will be:

Liberals36%
Conservatives33%
Bloc Qu├ębecois 9%
Green 7%
NDP 16%

The press releases and the detailed data is available online at:
Angus Reid
Environics
Harris/Decima
Ipsos
Strategic Council

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"If I had to choose between betraying my country and betraying my friend, I hope I should have the guts to betray my country."
-E.M. Forster