Coalition Politics: End of the Presidential PM?

The opposition parties in the federal house of commons, which represent 163 seats and 2 out of every three voters in Canada, have formed a coalition to oust the Tories. The threat to their funding got them together, but they were correct that the Conservative's lack of a stimulus package was essentially incompetent. Their approach to the current economic crisis was the same as that of US Pres. Herbert Hoover during the Great Depression- an approach that is now credited with deepening and extending the great depression. The particular brand of conservatism that advocates that approach, one of meddling only in sexual but not economic behavior is an anathema to the opposition hence they have decided to use their parliamentary majority to bring down the government with a non-confidence vote.

The upshot of this is a return to the Westminster model, where the Prime Minister serves at the pleasure of parliament, and where each member of parliament has a say in government. Instead of voting in a dictator, this returns representation to government in Canada. The individual member serves at the pleasure of the electorate he or she represents. It also suggests that the time may be ripe for the introduction of a system of representation by population.

As an aside, it says something about Stephane Dion that he could get Gilles Duceppe to agree to support a Liberal-led government.

Polls; lies, damn lies and statistics

the major polling companies publish their poll results and those results are duly reported in the media.

The Ipsos Reid poll, published in the CanWest group of newspapers, put support for the Conservatives at 35 percent, unchanged from a poll in March. But support for the Liberals fell to 30 percent, from 32 percent.- from Reuters

However a summary of headlines based on this poll includes:

Tories and Liberals remain deadlocked, new poll suggests The Canadian Press

Tories hold on to poll leadNational Post, Canada

Then a poll released about a week ago gives

Ten-Point Lead for Conservatives in Canada Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, April 02, 2008
Outlying statistics are loudly reported, but the boring fact that the published 3 week averages produced but generally under reported show little variation from Tories with 34%, Grits with 30% Dippers with 16%. The Greens are slowly growing and the Bloq slowly waning. The big issue is that with the current stable popularity of the various parties, the Liberals will gain seats, and the Bloq and NDP will lose seats if an election were called. The Conservatives will remain a minority government.

I'm not sure why the Liberals don't force a confidence motion, since they'll gain seats in an election, and probably the NDP and Bloq will prop up the government lest they lose seats in any current election. Currently, an election would help then Liberals and the greens, because both would gain some seats. The Conservatives would look like half-milers because they'll still be in minority.

Expect the election when the snow melts. A gain in seats would strenghten Dion's position(I think his nuanced positions will gain currency against that of the bully-boy, backroom Tories). I think the Greens will be the big winners next time around because the parlour pink socialists of the NDP and the psuedo-left Bloq will melt with the late spring. Knowing that the next government will also be a minority should help relieve the pressure for strategic voting.

Certainly, ending the government by fiat of Stephen Harper's Tories would allow us to go forward in a more kindly and effective way as a nation.

Conservative support sinking

Despite reportage of anomalous spikes in polls as accurate representations of the popularity of Canada's Federal parties, the actual popularity of the various parties has been fairly stable. This week for example Harris/Decima reported the harper conservatives at 37% popularity- however Harris/Decima's own research indicates this was an anomaly in a three week period where the Conservatives consistently polled 34%.

I suppose the anomalous stuff makes for more interesting press releases.

On the other hand, the Conservatives have been unable to expand beyond their base of 29% diehards and 5% who still want to punish the liberals. And the figures seem to indicate that 5% is shrinking. Pooling the results of the major polling firms over time shows this.

A vote of confidence over the Budget, or Aghanistan is now very likely, triggering a general election. My prediction as to its outcome still stands, except that the Conservatives will probably poll even lower than I've predicted.
At this time Between Adam's Ears is suggesting the next General Election's results will be:

Liberals36%
Conservatives33%
Bloc Québecois 9%
Green 7%
NDP 16%

The press releases and the detailed data is available online at:
Angus Reid
Environics
Harris/Decima
Ipsos
Strategic Council

Why I like, respect and won't vote for Duceppe

The second leader's debate aired on national tv last night. The formula wasn't Jerry Springer, with screaming, shouting and public nudity, but it actually allowed the candidates to present their policies and their characters . Unfortunately, these characters are rather uninspiring.

Mr Harper doesn't want to say what he wants to do. He mostly makes quiet comments about values, and promises that are not available to any federal leader[gay marriage and healthcare are matters of provincial jurisdiction as M.Duceppe reminded him].

Mr.Martin is proof that Canadians like pleasant,efficient and bland politicians. Otherwise he'd be in exile fleeing corruption charges.

Jack Layton has a job to do, which is to hammer home the message "vote NDP", don't hold your nose and vote Liberal lest Harper gets elected. The result is he didn't have time to present his more nuanced opinions- he used catch phrases and code words to remind people he is a leftist/progressive. Unfortunately, his hard sell style probably annoys the parlour pink socialists in the academy. However he might reach the people who should vote for him. Besides he looks like the old PM's on Canadian currency.

Ultimately, Gilles Duceppe the man who can't be Prime minister, spoke his mind freely, presented his points with vigour and dignity. If only he were a federalist.